Jibber Jabber - Q1 - 29

Hmm, what an interesting thing for KJA to say.

It does highly contradict what we've heard before, and what we can infer from duotrope stats: It's estimated that approximately 5-10 percent of all submissions get reported on duotrope, but it does vary from market to market (stats for SH= 921reported out of ~8952= ~10%. Stats for CW=1524 reported out of ~8208= ~19%). With the current numbers that's ~4230 to ~8460 entries a year estimated for WotF. Even if we suppose something more like 3% given that a contest open solely to amateurs probably has fewer submitters who are aware of trackers like duotrope, that's still only 14,100. You'd have to be looking at 2% or less for his numbers--which could be possible.

But, I think it's worth noting that while the percentage of submissions reported on duotrope was largely different for Strange Horizons and Clarkesworld (I chose them because their stats are readily available), their actual submissions totals were about the same. It wouldn't surprise me if they're roughly the same for all established pro venues. I can see WotF getting a bit more because it might attract people who are not submitting to other pro venues (I've seen it advertised by third parties as a "scholarship," so there might be a lot of young one-time submitters). But I can't imagine that would lead to over twice as many subs.

In fact, it should probably all level out, since there are so many people who can't submit to WotF because of their pro status.

ETA: But, again, interesting thing for him to note. I don't know why he'd say that if he didn't have a reason to believe that's how many entries there were a year.

...

And those are my useless number contributions for the day.

Marina,

Something I wonder about is the multiple quarter thing on Duo.

Martin has 3 stories reported there, but that's over 3 quarters.

For all Q1 folks, they've already removed their entry.

Because it fluctuates by quarter, how can we get an accurate number to guess with?

D

I used the reports over the last 12 months number on duo. That at least tells us how many duotrope subs have been reported for WotF/SH/CW in aprox one year. For SH and CW I used their self-reported one-month submissions totals and multiplied them by 12 to get their aproximate total subs for a year. Nope, not a perfect system by any means.

Marina,

Something I wonder about is the multiple quarter thing on Duo.

Martin has 3 stories reported there, but that's over 3 quarters.

For all Q1 folks, they've already removed their entry.

Because it fluctuates by quarter, how can we get an accurate number to guess with?

D

I look at their annual numbers, and assume those correspond roughly to 4 quarters. They have something like 453 for last 12 months, plus those pending.

But really, that's STILL just a lot of NOOTA...

Aah.
Shows you how much I know about Duotrope.

I still go there to see if some of my stories have been accepted...

D

It's not inconceivable they get 20,000 submissions. It's a contest that pays out quite a lot of money. People like contests, and they like money even more. It's possible they get lots and lots of highly inappropriate entries from people who've never read a science fiction story in their life but are simply attracted by the words "contest" and "$5000 for Gold Award". If they distribute books to classrooms and creative writing groups with the advert in the back they probably get lots of inappropriate entries.

One interesting thing came out of the conversation. He said, "You realize that is impressive, getting a Semi-finalist?" I said, "I knew it was good, maybe the top 1%". He then said that there were around 20 SF+Finalists out of 20,000 entries. I had always thought there were between 1-2K entries, but he threw out 20K. Just thought I'd throw that out there.

1-2K has always been an inference based on stated percentages. The contest has always kept actual numbers a secret. The closest we have to an "official" number is K.D.'s obituary, which said 1,200 stories per year. Frankly, no one believes that. I assume that meant per quarter.

No one here knows, but there's a lot of guessing.

UPDATE: And as long as we're guessing... I'm confident there will be news this week.

I think we can probably say with a high degree of confidence that the 20,000 entries number is just a misstatement. If you triangulate the 10-15% of people getting HMs (i.e., divide the number of HMs by 10-15% per quarter to get an implied submissions base), compare that with the 1,200 submission quote, and divide the annual Duotrope number by 4 and assume it is 10% of submissions, you always get to a number between 500 and 1,200. Not only does the 20,000 number not fit the data out there, but also it is impossible for a single human being to read that many submissions in a 2-3 month period. Here's the math:

Key Assumptions
[1] Average Story Length: 30 pages
[2] Total Submissions: 20,000
[3] Total Pages: 600,000 = [1] x [2]
[4] Number of Pages Read per Hour: 100
[5] Hours Required to Read all Stories: 6,000 = [3]/[4]
[6] Hours Spent Reading Stories per Day: 12
[7] Number of Days to Cycle Through Contest: 500 = [5]/[6]

In other words it would take one judge over a year and four months just to read every story.

K.D. didn't read every story, one might say. She only read 15-20% of them all the way through.

Even if one assumes that she spent zero minutes on 85% of the stories, it would still take 75 days (15% x 500) at the low end and 100 days at the high end to get through the contest, and this would be working 12-hour days, 7-days a week only on the contest.

If one does the same math for 1,000 submissions, one would get 25 days instead of 500 days - a much more manageable number. As such, I'm firmly convinced that the Contest would require more readers if it had as many as 20,000 entrants. Otherwise, the math just doesn't work out.

BTW, anyone who wants material for a 24-hr type story? Go sit in the Emergency Room. Spent 7 hours there with the kidlet yesterday. ("Etiology unclear" - it's medical-speak for "Heck if we know." We see a neurologist today.)

The stories I could tell you...

I hope your son is okay, Kary.

Can't quote on my ipad. He might be mistaken, but I did question him. I told him that I didn't think it was that many, but he insisted. At least we got the thread going again.

Aw Kary, I'm sorry to hear he is getting worse. Emailing you...

Sorry total topic derailment. I think we are safe to bet that more results will come tomorrow.

BTW, anyone who wants material for a 24-hr type story? Go sit in the Emergency Room. Spent 7 hours there with the kidlet yesterday. ("Etiology unclear" - it's medical-speak for "Heck if we know." We see a neurologist today.)

The stories I could tell you...

And what kind of stuff do you get at the ER? This kind, and this is just in the first 10 minutes...
-------------
We're at the door of the Emergency Room, and he's there with a clipboard. His fingers are twisted with age, and his hands are an angry purple. White flakes of skin the size of fingernails are lifting off black-crusted sores. "I'm here to help you," he says.

His hair is silver, his face friendly behind Coke-bottle glasses. They've given him a green jacket to wear. At first, the emblem looks like the Rotary Club, but I don't think it is. He wants us to sit down and fill out the paper, so we do. With his hunched shoulders and shuffling steps, I'm surprised he's working at all, even as a volunteer.

His wife is there, too, wearing the same green jacket over a pink sweatshirt with mountains on it. I think it says Alaska. She's wearing a little gold cross and white sneakers. I think she belongs in an RV somewhere, showing people pictures of her grandchildren. But instead she's here, distributing benevolence and wristbands to the drunks and drug-addicts, the indigent, the uninsured.

I hope everything is OK, Kary.
-Francis

Thanks, everyone. I'm a little too freaked at the mo to do creative-type writing, but recording the stuff from yesterday has been productive.

Hey all,

I kind of disappeared from here after Q4. Then I came back to see the news about KD, and even knowing as little as I do about her, and having been involved here as little as I have, I've felt pretty sad. She seems like someone who gave a great deal of herself to help relative strangers, and that is a wonderful gift to the world.

At this point I won't be subbing anything more to WotF, as I seem to have pro-ed out. I'm here because I wanted to cheer you all on a little. You're all an awesome bunch of people, and I hope that all of you, whether you end up winning or advancing your writing in other ways, have tremendous success. This forum is such a warm and supportive spot. Even with nothing in the running, I keep coming back to lurk and see how everyone is doing.

Good luck to you all! WRITE WRITE WRITE!

Also, Kari, I just saw everything about your son. I'm sorry you're going through all this, and I hope for a speedy and positive resolution for him.

Jen

Congratulations on pro'ing out, Jen! Sad, in its own way, but it still means you're selling.

And Kary, I hope the doctors can learn something and your son gets better. I recommend Kris Rusch on life rolls as a reminder that sometimes it's OK to pull back from the writing and give yourself permission to take care of the human details of life -- especially your family and yourself.

It's thursday! Good luck everyone! I'm ducking and taking cover.
Preston Dennett
(HM x 2)

Kary - I'm sending you and your family good thoughts and hope for a speedy diagnosis/recovery.

Yes, Kary, hope everything turns out ok.

And I think I missed it up thread, but I hope you're doing well, too, Nobu. Sorry to heard about your loss.

Rought time in the real world, man.

I hope everything sorts itself out, Kary. And as Martin says, don't be afraid to take a break from writing if you feel the need to as it's not always easy to write if you're overstressed. You can always come back to it.

Same for you, Annie, I hope you're feeling better soon. And here's hoping Q1 brings you good news.

So this week's Thursday flood is... 1 rejection on Duotrope.

At 67 days.

Q1 submissions closed 124 days ago.

Duotrope is soooooo amusing!

Anticipa-ation is makin' me wait...

My condolences to you, too, Annie.

Oh Man! I come on to the board to see the damage report and we don't get results today. I thought we'd have another batch of HM's from the people who subbed.

ETA: I think that there must be some people who log onto Duotrope to mess with us. They know people watch it like a hawk, so they make up fake rejections. Some people have a lot of time on their hands? Or maybe that was Bob Writer's rejection...he is a bit off. Or just like that quote my husband always says to me about not assuming conspiracy when stupidity could be the real answer.

Well, there is ONE report on Duo. Maybe they're just starting. Of course, it's for the wrong quarter...

Well, there is ONE report on Duo. Maybe they're just starting. Of course, it's for the wrong quarter...

I sometimes imagine that there's a joker out there who thinks, "I know a way to really mess with those people on the WotF forum." Then he (or she) logs fake submissions and responses, and sits back and laughs while we try to puzzle it out.

But it's probably just a confused entrant.

ETA: I think that there must be some people who log onto Duotrope to mess with us. They know people watch it like a hawk, so they make up fake rejections. Some people have a lot of time on their hands?

Even Evil Martin isn't THAT Evil. That's just... wrong...

I don't think we will hear this week. Some of the potential K.D. replacements were at Superstars Writing this week. I suspect next week we'll hear more.

Kidlet's MRI came out normal. This rules out the scary stuff for now. We're still trying to figure out the underlying stomach issue, but the good MRI means we're down to garden-variety stuff like an ulcer or food allergy.

Thanks for all of the good wishes, everyone.

Kidlet's MRI came out normal. This rules out the scary stuff for now. We're still trying to figure out the underlying stomach issue, but the good MRI means we're down to garden-variety stuff like an ulcer or food allergy.

Thanks for all of the good wishes, everyone.

Very good news! Soon you'll be back to WRITE! WRITE! WRITE! (And he'll be back to annoying questions just when your ideas start to flow into print.)

UPDATE: And now you've given me a story seed. I would tell it to you, but I'm afraid it would give you nightmares! A story I wrote recently gave my mom tears over an incident that happened to me 45 years ago. I had long since forgotten it, and I'm sure it had no relation to the story; but she saw a relation, and it got to her. Never underestimate a mom's capability to worry!

http://nineandsixtyways.com/
Tools, Not Rules.
Martin L. Shoemaker
3rd Place Q1 V31
"Today I Am Paul", WSFA Small Press Award 2015, Nebula nomination 2015
Today I Am Carey from Baen
The Last Dance (#1 science fiction eBook on Amazon, October 2019) and The Last Campaign from 47North

 

@ Martin - re: the story seed... HA!

The MRI... It's very loud. And percussive. Atonal, but rhythmic in a repetitive, grinding, grumbling, pounding sort of way. And partway through each cycle, the sound would get off by about half-a beat with itself, doppler-like. I was actually imagining interpretive dance to it. Add to that that they let the kid pick music on Pandora, and he picked the High Kings. The machine itself looks like a giant front loading washing machine, but all rounded and friendly-like, Japanese-style. It was very, VERY odd.